Valuing deaths or years of life lost? Economic benefits of avoided mortality from early heat warning systems

The study aims to explore the main drivers influencing the economic appraisal of heat warning systems by integrating epidemiological modelling and benefit-cost analysis. To shed insights on heat wave mortality valuation, we consider three valuation schemes: (i) a traditional one, where the value of a statistical life (VSL) is applied to both displaced and premature mortality; (ii) an intermediate one, with VSL applied for premature mortality and value of a life year (VOLY) for displaced mortality; and (iii) a conservative one, where both premature and displaced mortality are quantified in terms of loss of life expectancy, and then valued using the VOLY approach. When applying these three schemes to Madrid (Spain), we obtain a benefit-cost ratio varying from 12 to 3700. We find that the choice of the valuation scheme has the largest influence, whereas other parameters such as attributable risk, displaced mortality ratio, or the comprehensiveness and effectiveness of the heat warning system are less influential. The results raise the question of which is the most appropriate approach to value mortality in the context of heat waves, given that the lower bound estimate for the benefit-cost ratio (option iii using VOLY) is up to two orders of magnitude lower than the value based on the traditional VSL approach (option i). The choice of the valuation methodology has significant implications for public health authorities at the local and regional scale, which becomes highly relevant for locations where the application of the VOLY approach could lead to benefit-cost ratios significantly lower than 1. We propose that specific metrics for premature and displaced VOLYs should be developed for the context of heat waves. Until such values are available, we suggest testing the economic viability of heat warning systems under the three proposed valuation schemes (i iii) and using values for VOLY commonly applied in air pollution as the health end points are similar. Lastly, periodical reassessment of heat alert plans should be performed by public health authorities to monitor their long-term viability and cost-effectiveness. © 2018, The Author(s).This study is part of the project BASE (Bottom-up Climate Adaptation Strategies for a Sustainable Europe) funded by the European Union?s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development, and demonstration under Grant Agreement No. 308337. Marc B. Neumann also acknowledges financial support from the Ram?n y Cajal Research Fellowship of the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain (no. RYC-2013-13628

Multiscale Bone Remodelling with Spatial P Systems

Many biological phenomena are inherently multiscale, i.e. they are characterized by interactions involving different spatial and temporal scales simultaneously. Though several approaches have been proposed to provide "multilayer" models, only Complex Automata, derived from Cellular Automata, naturally embed spatial information and realize multiscaling with well-established inter-scale integration schemas. Spatial P systems, a variant of P systems in which a more geometric concept of space has been added, have several characteristics in common with Cellular Automata. We propose such a formalism as a basis to rephrase the Complex Automata multiscaling approach and, in this perspective, provide a 2-scale Spatial P system describing bone remodelling. The proposed model not only results to be highly faithful and expressive in a multiscale scenario, but also highlights the need of a deep and formal expressiveness study involving Complex Automata, Spatial P systems and other promising multiscale approaches, such as our shape-based one already resulted to be highly faithful.Comment: In Proceedings MeCBIC 2010, arXiv:1011.005

Microscopic description of d-wave superconductivity by Van Hove nesting in the Hubbard model

We devise a computational approach to the Hubbard model that captures the strong coupling dynamics arising when the Fermi level is at a Van Hove singularity in the density of states. We rely on an approximate degeneracy among the many-body states accounting for the main instabilities of the system (antiferromagnetism, d-wave superconductivity). The Fermi line turns out to be deformed in a manner consistent with the pinning of the Fermi level to the Van Hove singularity. For a doping rate $\delta \sim 0.2$, the ground state is characterized by d-wave symmetry, quasiparticles gapped only at the saddle-points of the band, and a large peak at zero momentum in the d-wave pairing correlations.Comment: 4 pages, 2 Postscript figure

A complex systems approach to constructing better models for managing financial markets and the economy

We outline a vision for an ambitious program to understand the economy and financial markets as a complex evolving system of coupled networks of interacting agents. This is a completely different vision from that currently used in most economic models. This view implies new challenges and opportunities for policy and managing economic crises. The dynamics of such models inherently involve sudden and sometimes dramatic changes of state. Further, the tools and approaches we use emphasize the analysis of crises rather than of calm periods. In this they respond directly to the calls of Governors Bernanke and Trichet for new approaches to macroeconomic modelling.The publication of this work was partially supported by the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. 284709, a Coordination and Support Action in the Information and Communication Technologies activity area (‘FuturICT’ FET Flagship Pilot Project). Doyne Farmer, Mauro Gallegati and Cars Hommes also acknowledge financial support from the EU-7th framework collaborative project “Complexity Research Initiative for Systemic InstabilitieS (CRISIS)”, grant No. 288501. Cars Hommes acknowledges financial support from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), project “Understanding Financial Instability through Complex Systems”. None of the above are responsible for errors in this paper.Publicad

Isotopic Grand Unification with the Inclusion of Gravity (revised version)

We introduce a dual lifting of unified gauge theories, the first characterized by the isotopies, which are axiom- preserving maps into broader structures with positive-definite generalized units used for the representation of matter under the isotopies of the Poincare' symmetry, and the second characterized by the isodualities, which are anti-isomorphic maps with negative-definite generalized units used for the representation of antimatter under the isodualities of the Poincare' symmetry. We then submit, apparently for the first time, a novel grand unification with the inclusion of gravity for matter embedded in the generalized positive-definite units of unified gauge theories while gravity for antimatter is embedded in the isodual isounit. We then show that the proposed grand unification provides realistic possibilities for a resolution of the axiomatic incompatibilities between gravitation and electroweak interactions due to curvature, antimatter and the fundamental space-time symmetries.Comment: 20 pages, Latex, revised in various details and with added reference

Orbital Observations of Dust Lofted by Daytime Convective Turbulence

Over the past several decades, orbital observations of lofted dust have revealed the importance of mineral aerosols as a climate forcing mechanism on both Earth and Mars. Increasingly detailed and diverse data sets have provided an ever-improving understanding of dust sources, transport pathways, and sinks on both planets, but the role of dust in modulating atmospheric processes is complex and not always well understood. We present a review of orbital observations of entrained dust on Earth and Mars, particularly that produced by the dust-laden structures produced by daytime convective turbulence called “dust devils”. On Earth, dust devils are thought to contribute only a small fraction of the atmospheric dust budget; accordingly, there are not yet any published accounts of their occurrence from orbit. In contrast, dust devils on Mars are thought to account for several tens of percent of the planet’s atmospheric dust budget; the literature regarding martian dust devils is quite rich. Because terrestrial dust devils may temporarily contribute significantly to local dust loading and lowered air quality, we suggest that martian dust devil studies may inform future studies of convectively-lofted dust on Earth

Comprehensive analysis of epigenetic clocks reveals associations between disproportionate biological ageing and hippocampal volume

The concept of age acceleration, the difference between biological age and chronological age, is of growing interest, particularly with respect to age-related disorders, such as Alzheimer’s Disease (AD). Whilst studies have reported associations with AD risk and related phenotypes, there remains a lack of consensus on these associations. Here we aimed to comprehensively investigate the relationship between five recognised measures of age acceleration, based on DNA methylation patterns (DNAm age), and cross-sectional and longitudinal cognition and AD-related neuroimaging phenotypes (volumetric MRI and Amyloid-β PET) in the Australian Imaging, Biomarkers and Lifestyle (AIBL) and the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Significant associations were observed between age acceleration using the Hannum epigenetic clock and cross-sectional hippocampal volume in AIBL and replicated in ADNI. In AIBL, several other findings were observed cross-sectionally, including a significant association between hippocampal volume and the Hannum and Phenoage epigenetic clocks. Further, significant associations were also observed between hippocampal volume and the Zhang and Phenoage epigenetic clocks within Amyloid-β positive individuals. However, these were not validated within the ADNI cohort. No associations between age acceleration and other Alzheimer’s disease-related phenotypes, including measures of cognition or brain Amyloid-β burden, were observed, and there was no association with longitudinal change in any phenotype. This study presents a link between age acceleration, as determined using DNA methylation, and hippocampal volume that was statistically significant across two highly characterised cohorts. The results presented in this study contribute to a growing literature that supports the role of epigenetic modifications in ageing and AD-related phenotypes